What the March 2026 Market Is Telling Us
Is Now the Right Time for First Time Buyers in Toronto?
If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right moment to make your move, the latest numbers from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) are worth paying attention to — especially if you’re one of the many first time buyers Toronto has been quietly pricing out for the past few years. Let us break down what’s actually happening in the market right now and what it means for you.
The Market Is Shifting — And It's Shifting in Your Favour
March 2026 brought some genuinely encouraging news. Sales across the Greater Toronto Area were up 1.7 per cent compared to March 2025, which tells us that more buyers are starting to feel confident enough to act. At the same time, new listings actually dropped by 16.7 per cent year-over-year, meaning there’s less competition flooding the market from the seller side.
Now here’s the part that matters most if you’re a first time buyer in Toronto searching for your first home: prices are down. The average selling price in March 2026 came in at $1,017,796 — down 6.7 per cent compared to this time last year. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was also down 7.4 per cent year-over-year.
In real terms, that means homes are more affordable today than they were a year ago.
You Still Have Negotiating Power — But Maybe Not for Long
One thing we want to be upfront about: buyers right now have real negotiating power. TREBB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer noted that buyers have been benefiting from substantial negotiating power on price across major market segments. That’s a polite way of saying sellers are working harder to close deals, and you have more room to negotiate than you did a year or two ago.
But here’s the honest truth — that window may not stay open forever. Market conditions tightened in March compared to February, and if that trend continues through the spring and into summer, we could start to see prices stabilize and that negotiating leverage quietly disappear.
For first time buyers in Toronto, this is the kind of market moment that doesn’t come around often. And the people who move while others are still waiting are usually the ones who look back and say they made the right call.
What About the Bigger Picture?
There’s a lot going on beyond just the numbers. Trade uncertainty and geopolitical tension have been keeping some buyers cautious, and that’s completely understandable. TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld acknowledged that positive news on those fronts would help boost consumer confidence and push sales even higher in the months ahead.
But here’s our take: waiting for the perfect moment — when the economy feels settled, rates are ideal, and headlines are calm — means waiting forever. Markets move before the news catches up. The buyers who do well are usually the ones who focus on what they can control: their budget, their needs, and their long-term plan.
So What Should First Time Buyers in Toronto Actually Do Right Now?
Here’s my honest advice, plain and simple:
Get your finances in order. Talk to a mortgage broker if you haven’t already. Know your numbers before you start falling in love with listings.
Don’t wait for the bottom. Nobody rings a bell when the market hits its lowest point. If the home works for your life and your budget, that matters more than trying to time things perfectly.
Use your negotiating power. This market still favours buyers in many segments. Ask questions, make offers, and don’t be afraid to negotiate.
Think long term. Your first home doesn’t have to be your forever home. It’s a starting point — a way to build equity and get your foot in the door of one of the world’s most resilient real estate markets.
For first time buyers, Toronto represents both a challenge and an opportunity. The challenge is real — this is still one of the most expensive cities in North America. But the opportunity right now is also real, and the data from March 2026 backs that up.
If you have questions about what this market means for your specific situation, we are always happy to chat. No pressure, no pitch — just a straight conversation about where you stand and what your options look like.