Record-high Toronto listings boost buyer options

Toronto Real Estate Update: Record Inventory & Shifting Affordability

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market is experiencing a historic shift—active listings soared past 30,000 in May for the first time ever. With 30,964 properties available, supply is up 13% from April, 42% from last year, and a staggering 89% above the 10-year average for this time of year.

Yet, despite the surge in inventory, buyer activity remains sluggish. Only 6,244 homes sold in May, translating to roughly five months of supply—a clear sign that we’re in a buyer’s market. Interestingly, while demand is soft, the average home price still rose 1% month-over-month to $1,120,879, though prices remain 3.84% lower than May 2023.

So, what does this mean for housing affordability in Toronto? Let’s break it down.

First-Time Buyers Get a Boost

In an effort to improve housing affordability in Toronto and other high-cost markets, the federal government recently introduced a targeted GST rebate for first-time buyers. Under the new plan:

Newly built homes under $1 million qualify for a full GST rebate (previously capped at $450,000).
This applies only to first-time buyers, helping offset upfront costs in expensive cities like Toronto and Vancouver.

This change better reflects today’s entry-level pricing, where even modest condos and townhomes often exceed the old threshold. While the long-term impact remains to be seen, this incentive could stimulate demand for new construction, particularly in the townhome and condo markets.

Condo Market: Record Listings, Less Buyer Activity

Condos are facing the biggest inventory surge, with 10,523 active listings—a 120% increase over the 10-year average. Yet, only 1,482 units sold in May, 36% below historical norms. Despite the oversupply, prices held steady at an average of $683,413, suggesting sellers aren’t yet slashing prices dramatically.

For buyers, this means more options and less competition, making it a prime time to negotiate.

Detached Homes: Prices Dip, Inventory Climbs

Detached homes saw a slight price drop to $1,425,264, while inventory hit 13,770 listings—up 16% monthly and 65% over the 10-year average. Sales did increase by 17% (2,998 transactions), but the market remains well-supplied.

Townhomes & Semis: Mixed Trends

Townhomes dipped below the $1M mark, averaging $995,662. Inventory hit a record 2,287 listings (115% above historical norms), while sales rose 14% (650 deals).
Semi-detached homes saw a 1% price increase ($1,098,447) with inventory reaching 1,680 listings, another all-time high. Sales rose 10% (617 transactions).

The Bigger Picture: Affordability & Economic Confidence

Jason Mercer, TRREB’s Chief Information Officer, notes that while homeownership costs are lower than last year (thanks to reduced prices and borrowing costs), economic uncertainty is keeping buyers cautious.

“Once households are convinced that trade stability with the United States will be established and/or real options to mitigate our reliance on the U.S. exist, home sales will pick up. Further cuts in borrowing costs would also be welcome news to homebuyers.”

What Does This Mean for Buyers & Sellers?

For Buyers:

✅ More choice & negotiating power than in years
✅ Lower prices & possible incentives (like the GST rebate)
✅ Less competition means fewer bidding wars

For Sellers:

📉 Pricing competitively is key—overpriced homes may sit longer
🏡 Highlight value in marketing (location, upgrades, etc.)
⏳ Patience may be needed—buyers are taking their time

Bottom Line: A Rare Opportunity for Buyers

With record inventory, softening prices, and new incentives, housing affordability in Toronto has improved compared to recent years. While economic uncertainty is keeping some buyers on the sidelines, those ready to move now have a stronger position than they’ve had in a long time.

If you’re considering buying or selling in today’s market, let’s chat! We can help you navigate these shifting conditions and make the best move for your goals.